A Bold Experiment: Safely Testing Solar Radiation Modification to Combat Climate Change
The world is grappling with the consequences of rapid warming, with 2024 marking the first full year more than 1.5C hotter than the 19th-century average. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a new high in 2025, and permanent carbon removal technologies are struggling to keep pace with the scale required. However, researchers are exploring an alternative approach: reflecting sunlight away from Earth.
The concept has been around since the 1960s, when Lyndon B Johnson's science advisers proposed it as a means to cool the planet. In reality, our atmosphere already reflects about 30% of incoming sunlight, and increasing this fraction could strengthen the natural heat shield. However, there are concerns about the feasibility and risks associated with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which involves releasing sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere.
Some critics argue that SAI is too risky to study, but experts disagree. Careful research can help determine whether a well-governed approach could reduce harm, particularly for vulnerable populations. In fact, it's essential to surface risks and failure modes early, making reckless proposals less likely to gain traction.
To address these concerns, researchers are proposing a phase-gated program for SAI, similar to the clinical trial framework used in medicine. This would involve several stages, including lab work, computer models, and small-scale outdoor experiments. Phase one would involve releasing tiny amounts of sulfur dioxide at specific altitudes, carefully measuring its evolution, and comparing those observations with model predictions.
The goal is not to deploy SAI immediately but to generate real-world evidence, transparently, before a crisis forces our hand. This requires building the necessary tools, rules, and oversight mechanisms now, rather than later. A new project funded by the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) is working on developing theoretical foundations for determining the minimum scale at which an outdoor experiment could meaningfully reduce key uncertainties.
Ultimately, small-scale experiments can reduce both scientific uncertainties and political risks. The real danger isn't asking the question; it's waiting too long to learn the answer. By pursuing this bold experiment, researchers can help pave the way for a more responsible decision about SAI's use in the future – a future that may never need to reflect sunlight, but one that should be prepared if necessary.
The world is grappling with the consequences of rapid warming, with 2024 marking the first full year more than 1.5C hotter than the 19th-century average. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a new high in 2025, and permanent carbon removal technologies are struggling to keep pace with the scale required. However, researchers are exploring an alternative approach: reflecting sunlight away from Earth.
The concept has been around since the 1960s, when Lyndon B Johnson's science advisers proposed it as a means to cool the planet. In reality, our atmosphere already reflects about 30% of incoming sunlight, and increasing this fraction could strengthen the natural heat shield. However, there are concerns about the feasibility and risks associated with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which involves releasing sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere.
Some critics argue that SAI is too risky to study, but experts disagree. Careful research can help determine whether a well-governed approach could reduce harm, particularly for vulnerable populations. In fact, it's essential to surface risks and failure modes early, making reckless proposals less likely to gain traction.
To address these concerns, researchers are proposing a phase-gated program for SAI, similar to the clinical trial framework used in medicine. This would involve several stages, including lab work, computer models, and small-scale outdoor experiments. Phase one would involve releasing tiny amounts of sulfur dioxide at specific altitudes, carefully measuring its evolution, and comparing those observations with model predictions.
The goal is not to deploy SAI immediately but to generate real-world evidence, transparently, before a crisis forces our hand. This requires building the necessary tools, rules, and oversight mechanisms now, rather than later. A new project funded by the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) is working on developing theoretical foundations for determining the minimum scale at which an outdoor experiment could meaningfully reduce key uncertainties.
Ultimately, small-scale experiments can reduce both scientific uncertainties and political risks. The real danger isn't asking the question; it's waiting too long to learn the answer. By pursuing this bold experiment, researchers can help pave the way for a more responsible decision about SAI's use in the future – a future that may never need to reflect sunlight, but one that should be prepared if necessary.
think its crazy how scientists are even trying this out cuz we all know how messy geoengineering is gonna get 
they gotta make sure its done right tho 'cause 1.5C temp rise is no joke 
and we cant just sit around waiting for the perfect solution, gotta start testing those boundaries ASAP 
. I mean, we've been hearing about climate change for years now and not much has changed... well, other than the rising sea levels 
. It's crazy how far we've come since the 60s when this idea was first proposed. SAI might seem like a risk, but think of it as playing it safe vs doing nothing 
. If they can make it work, that'd be amazing. But we need to be cautious and not rush into anything that could harm people or the environment 
. I'm all for progress, especially when it comes to solving our planet's problems 
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and it made me think about climate change like how are we gonna fix this?? 
but at the same time if it can help reduce global warming that would be amazing 
i heard its been proposed since the 60s lol thats even older than my grandma 
anyway i hope they do more research on it and make sure its safe for everyone, especially those who are already vulnerable to extreme weather events 
. I mean, yeah, there are some risks, but we need to test it out and find the safe way to do it, you know? This phase-gated program makes total sense, like a clinical trial for space, lol. And if we're gonna invest in this stuff, let's at least have a solid theoretical foundation first 
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. im not sure about it tho, there are def some risks involved... but at least its being studied now, rather than just ignored 
. the uk just funded this project, so maybe its gonna happen in phases 
. dont wanna wait too long to know if this is a good idea or not, thats for sure 
We need to make sure we're not just throwing band-aids at the problem without thinking about the long-term effects 
apparently some ppl think it's too risky but others say we should test it out in a controlled way before we do something crazy 
I was like sitting in my physics class just thinking about climate change and our teacher mentioned this whole solar radiation modification thing... it sounds crazy but at least they're trying to find a solution right? 
it's a lot to take in. but on the other hand, if this experiment could really provide some answers and help us mitigate climate change... that'd be amazing 
. like, what exactly does that entail? how much sulfur dioxide are we talking about releasing into the atmosphere?