Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are locked in a heated row over the future of Yemen, with tensions between the two Gulf states reaching a boiling point. The UAE has been backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement seeking independence for southern Yemen, which Saudi Arabia views as a threat to its national security.
The UAE's involvement in Yemen dates back years, with the STC gaining recognition and seats on the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) in 2019. However, the STC has never been content with federalist solutions, and instead sought greater autonomy or independence for southern Yemen. This month, the STC took a significant step forward by seizing control of nearly all of the territory of former South Yemen state, including its oilfields.
Saudi Arabia has responded by applying diplomatic pressure on Abu Dhabi to demand the STC's withdrawal, with Riyadh making it clear that any threat to national security would be met with force. However, the UAE remains defiant, with analysts portraying its support for the STC as a test of its character and commitment to its allies.
The conflict reflects deep-seated disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the future political structure of Yemen and the balance of influence within it. The UAE's more interventionist approach has led to tensions building for years, and the current rift is reminiscent of the 2017 Gulf crisis involving Qatar.
Western governments have largely sided with Saudi Arabia, showing little desire to criticise the UAE publicly. This backing is likely to further entrench the rift between the two states, potentially emboldening the Houthis who see the growing divide as an opportunity to exploit their former coalition partners' differences.
The situation in Yemen has the potential to spill over into other regional disputes, including in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant interests. As tensions between the two Gulf states continue to escalate, the region remains on high alert for further developments that could exacerbate the crisis or lead to a more stable resolution.
The UAE's involvement in Yemen dates back years, with the STC gaining recognition and seats on the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) in 2019. However, the STC has never been content with federalist solutions, and instead sought greater autonomy or independence for southern Yemen. This month, the STC took a significant step forward by seizing control of nearly all of the territory of former South Yemen state, including its oilfields.
Saudi Arabia has responded by applying diplomatic pressure on Abu Dhabi to demand the STC's withdrawal, with Riyadh making it clear that any threat to national security would be met with force. However, the UAE remains defiant, with analysts portraying its support for the STC as a test of its character and commitment to its allies.
The conflict reflects deep-seated disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the future political structure of Yemen and the balance of influence within it. The UAE's more interventionist approach has led to tensions building for years, and the current rift is reminiscent of the 2017 Gulf crisis involving Qatar.
Western governments have largely sided with Saudi Arabia, showing little desire to criticise the UAE publicly. This backing is likely to further entrench the rift between the two states, potentially emboldening the Houthis who see the growing divide as an opportunity to exploit their former coalition partners' differences.
The situation in Yemen has the potential to spill over into other regional disputes, including in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant interests. As tensions between the two Gulf states continue to escalate, the region remains on high alert for further developments that could exacerbate the crisis or lead to a more stable resolution.